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Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?

Ended: Jun 30

Ended: Jun 30

$529,033,417 Vol.

Feb 4, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de diciembre

$19,193 Vol.

No

11 de enero

$3,035,454 Vol.

No

12 de enero

$1,743,135 Vol.

No

13 de enero

$3,335,543 Vol.

No

14 de enero

$13,619,742 Vol.

No

15 de enero

$7,975,002 Vol.

No

16 de enero

$8,491,723 Vol.

No

17 de enero

$3,823,998 Vol.

No

18 de enero

$5,468,913 Vol.

No

23 de enero

$12,296,618 Vol.

No

24 de enero

$2,924,662 Vol.

No

25 de enero

$2,703,692 Vol.

No

26 de enero

$6,908,538 Vol.

No

27 de enero

$2,498,074 Vol.

No

28 de enero

$1,950,685 Vol.

No

29 de enero

$3,064,539 Vol.

No

30 de enero

$3,469,659 Vol.

No

31 de enero

$41,754,060 Vol.

No

1 de febrero

$6,629,658 Vol.

No

2 de febrero

$4,246,232 Vol.

No

3 de febrero

$3,763,165 Vol.

No

4 de febrero

$3,844,340 Vol.

No

5 de febrero

$4,461,531 Vol.

No

6 de febrero

$9,750,256 Vol.

No

7 de febrero

$3,615,405 Vol.

No

8 de febrero

$3,821,142 Vol.

No

9 de febrero

$17,561,112 Vol.

No

10 de febrero

$10,496,937 Vol.

No

11 de febrero

$4,493,524 Vol.

No

12 de febrero

$4,187,886 Vol.

No

13 de febrero

$15,146,244 Vol.

No

14 de febrero

$4,140,716 Vol.

No

15 de febrero

$4,542,348 Vol.

No

16 de febrero

$4,855,990 Vol.

No

17 de febrero

$5,599,406 Vol.

No

18 de febrero

$7,408,763 Vol.

No

19 de febrero

$8,798,853 Vol.

No

20 de febrero

$18,810,054 Vol.

No

21 de febrero

$12,250,013 Vol.

No

22 de febrero

$12,611,170 Vol.

No

23 de febrero

$14,022,419 Vol.

No

24 de febrero

$16,942,274 Vol.

No

25 de febrero

$10,517,389 Vol.

No

26 de febrero

$14,489,547 Vol.

No

27 de febrero

$25,087,849 Vol.

No

28 de febrero

$89,652,867 Vol.

Sí

1 de marzo

$8,093,539 Vol.

Sí

2 de marzo

$3,812,922 Vol.

Sí

3 de marzo

$1,917,863 Vol.

Sí

4 de marzo

$1,376,485 Vol.

Sí

5 de marzo

$1,565,799 Vol.

Sí

6 de marzo

$1,008,204 Vol.

Sí

7 de marzo

$2,470,666 Vol.

Sí

8 de marzo

$539,454 Vol.

Sí

9 de marzo

$379,810 Vol.

Sí

10 de marzo

$269,970 Vol.

Sí

11 de marzo

$190,483 Vol.

Sí

12 de marzo

$197,658 Vol.

Sí

13 de marzo

$283,107 Vol.

Sí

14 de marzo

$357,946 Vol.

Sí

15 de marzo

$6,642,886 Vol.

Sí

31 de marzo

$22,213,247 Vol.

Sí

30 de junio

$9,193,272 Vol.

Sí

31 de diciembre

$1,689,785 Vol.

Sí

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$529,033,417
Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28 de febrero" at 100%, followed by "1 de marzo" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?" has generated $529 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?" is "28 de febrero" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1 de marzo" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Estados Unidos ataca a Irán con...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.