Trader consensus assigns a 98.6% implied probability to no U.S. evacuation of its Jerusalem embassy by March 31, reflecting the total absence of State Department announcements, security alerts, or credible intelligence indicating such a move. The embassy operates normally amid Israel-Hamas hostilities and limited Hezbollah clashes along the northern border, with U.S. travel advisories at Level 3—reconsider travel—but no ordered departures. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations require direct, imminent threats, absent here despite regional volatility. Confidence stems from the tight deadline and zero catalysts. Realistic changes could follow a sudden escalation, such as widespread Iranian proxy attacks on central Israel, though no evidence suggests this trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$44,300 Vol.
$44,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$44,300 Vol.
$44,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volumen
$44,300Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volumen
$44,300Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.6% implied probability to no U.S. evacuation of its Jerusalem embassy by March 31, reflecting the total absence of State Department announcements, security alerts, or credible intelligence indicating such a move. The embassy operates normally amid Israel-Hamas hostilities and limited Hezbollah clashes along the northern border, with U.S. travel advisories at Level 3—reconsider travel—but no ordered departures. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations require direct, imminent threats, absent here despite regional volatility. Confidence stems from the tight deadline and zero catalysts. Realistic changes could follow a sudden escalation, such as widespread Iranian proxy attacks on central Israel, though no evidence suggests this trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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