Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM, 0.2% 3M/3M per ONS) and softening March flash PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4 and services at 51.2—signaling decelerating activity amid elevated energy costs from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Bank of England staff project underlying Q1 growth around 0.1%, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% tracker estimate, while OECD slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7% on global risks. A recent flash Q1 estimate of 0.1% reinforces subdued momentum, with traders assigning just 3.5% to negative growth; watch impending March monthly GDP and April's Q1 quarterly release for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0,0-0,3% 40%
0,3-0,6% 28.8%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
0,9-1,2% 18.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
4%
0,0-0,3%
47%
0,3-0,6%
29%
0,6-0,9%
24%
0,9-1,2%
18%
1,2-1,5%
1%
1,5-1,8%
1%
1,8%+
2%
0,0-0,3% 40%
0,3-0,6% 28.8%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
0,9-1,2% 18.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
$0 Vol.
4%
0,0-0,3%
$8,738 Vol.
47%
0,3-0,6%
$550 Vol.
29%
0,6-0,9%
$0 Vol.
24%
0,9-1,2%
$0 Vol.
18%
1,2-1,5%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,5-1,8%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,8%+
$690 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM, 0.2% 3M/3M per ONS) and softening March flash PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4 and services at 51.2—signaling decelerating activity amid elevated energy costs from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Bank of England staff project underlying Q1 growth around 0.1%, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% tracker estimate, while OECD slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7% on global risks. A recent flash Q1 estimate of 0.1% reinforces subdued momentum, with traders assigning just 3.5% to negative growth; watch impending March monthly GDP and April's Q1 quarterly release for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$9,978Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM, 0.2% 3M/3M per ONS) and softening March flash PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4 and services at 51.2—signaling decelerating activity amid elevated energy costs from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Bank of England staff project underlying Q1 growth around 0.1%, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% tracker estimate, while OECD slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7% on global risks. A recent flash Q1 estimate of 0.1% reinforces subdued momentum, with traders assigning just 3.5% to negative growth; watch impending March monthly GDP and April's Q1 quarterly release for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,978Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM, 0.2% 3M/3M per ONS) and softening March flash PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4 and services at 51.2—signaling decelerating activity amid elevated energy costs from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Bank of England staff project underlying Q1 growth around 0.1%, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% tracker estimate, while OECD slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7% on global risks. A recent flash Q1 estimate of 0.1% reinforces subdued momentum, with traders assigning just 3.5% to negative growth; watch impending March monthly GDP and April's Q1 quarterly release for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes