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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

Market icon
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

Christian Menefee 80.2%

Al Green 23.5%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Christian Menefee 80.2%

Al Green 23.5%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Christian Menefee

$0 Vol.

75%

Al Green

$3,355 Vol.

24%

Amanda Edwards

$0 Vol.

<1%

Gretchen Brown

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 76% implied probability over Rep. Al Green, reflecting Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead on March 3 amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents against each other in the safely Democratic Houston-area district. Menefee's momentum stems from his recent special election victory in January, superior fundraising with over $2.6 million raised, and Green's no-show at a March 25 debate hosted by local progressive groups, where Menefee alone outlined his vision. With the May 26 runoff approaching, Green's longer tenure since 2005 and higher cash-on-hand provide a path to close the gap, but voter turnout after four district elections in seven months remains a key uncertainty.

Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 76% implied probability over Rep. Al Green, reflecting Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead on March 3 amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents against each other in the safely Democratic Houston-area district. Menefee's momentum stems from his recent special election victory in January, superior fundraising with over $2.6 million raised, and Green's no-show at a March 25 debate hosted by local progressive groups, where Menefee alone outlined his vision. With the May 26 runoff approaching, Green's longer tenure since 2005 and higher cash-on-hand provide a path to close the gap, but voter turnout after four district elections in seven months remains a key uncertainty.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 76% implied probability over Rep. Al Green, reflecting Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead on March 3 amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents against each other in the safely Democratic Houston-area district. Menefee's momentum stems from his recent special election victory in January, superior fundraising with over $2.6 million raised, and Green's no-show at a March 25 debate hosted by local progressive groups, where Menefee alone outlined his vision. With the May 26 runoff approaching, Green's longer tenure since 2005 and higher cash-on-hand provide a path to close the gap, but voter turnout after four district elections in seven months remains a key uncertainty.

Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 76% implied probability over Rep. Al Green, reflecting Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead on March 3 amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents against each other in the safely Democratic Houston-area district. Menefee's momentum stems from his recent special election victory in January, superior fundraising with over $2.6 million raised, and Green's no-show at a March 25 debate hosted by local progressive groups, where Menefee alone outlined his vision. With the May 26 runoff approaching, Green's longer tenure since 2005 and higher cash-on-hand provide a path to close the gap, but voter turnout after four district elections in seven months remains a key uncertainty.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Christian Menefee" con 75%, seguido de "Al Green" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 75¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 75% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Feb 4, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es "Christian Menefee" con 75%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 75% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Al Green" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.