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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15

icon for Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15

Ritchie Torres 90%

Michael Blake 5.8%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

Ritchie Torres 90%

Michael Blake 5.8%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

Ritchie Torres

$3,773 Vol.

90%

Michael Blake

$2,872 Vol.

6%

Dalourny Nemorin

$14,136 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$7,158 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$27,938
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$27,938
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ritchie Torres" con 90%, seguido de "Michael Blake" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 90¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 90% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" ha generado $27.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 25, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" es "Ritchie Torres" con 90%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 90% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Michael Blake" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.