Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 South Korea GDP growth trajectory, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.5–0.9% (32%) and 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting uncertainty over export momentum and domestic headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, dragged by a 2.1% plunge in construction investment and subdued private consumption, despite semiconductor export resilience. Bank of Korea's November cut to 2025 full-year growth forecast at 1.9% underscores softening labor market conditions and feeble Chinese demand, compounded by December's political turmoil following President Yoon's short-lived martial law declaration, which spiked volatility. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP data due January 2025, potential impeachment proceedings, and U.S. tariff risks under Trump, which could differentiate outcomes between sub-1% stagnation and mid-1% recovery via fiscal stimulus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
2,0–2,4% 31%
1,0–1,4% 19.7%
2,5%+ 15%
0.0–0.4% 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
5%
0,5–0,9%
32%
1,0–1,4%
20%
1,5–1,9%
32%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5%+
16%
2,0–2,4% 31%
1,0–1,4% 19.7%
2,5%+ 15%
0.0–0.4% 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 Vol.
5%
0,5–0,9%
$0 Vol.
32%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
20%
1,5–1,9%
$267 Vol.
32%
2,0–2,4%
$0 Vol.
25%
2,5%+
$6,175 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 South Korea GDP growth trajectory, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.5–0.9% (32%) and 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting uncertainty over export momentum and domestic headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, dragged by a 2.1% plunge in construction investment and subdued private consumption, despite semiconductor export resilience. Bank of Korea's November cut to 2025 full-year growth forecast at 1.9% underscores softening labor market conditions and feeble Chinese demand, compounded by December's political turmoil following President Yoon's short-lived martial law declaration, which spiked volatility. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP data due January 2025, potential impeachment proceedings, and U.S. tariff risks under Trump, which could differentiate outcomes between sub-1% stagnation and mid-1% recovery via fiscal stimulus.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$6,442Fecha de finalización
Apr 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 South Korea GDP growth trajectory, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.5–0.9% (32%) and 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting uncertainty over export momentum and domestic headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, dragged by a 2.1% plunge in construction investment and subdued private consumption, despite semiconductor export resilience. Bank of Korea's November cut to 2025 full-year growth forecast at 1.9% underscores softening labor market conditions and feeble Chinese demand, compounded by December's political turmoil following President Yoon's short-lived martial law declaration, which spiked volatility. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP data due January 2025, potential impeachment proceedings, and U.S. tariff risks under Trump, which could differentiate outcomes between sub-1% stagnation and mid-1% recovery via fiscal stimulus.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$6,442Fecha de finalización
Apr 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 South Korea GDP growth trajectory, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.5–0.9% (32%) and 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting uncertainty over export momentum and domestic headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, dragged by a 2.1% plunge in construction investment and subdued private consumption, despite semiconductor export resilience. Bank of Korea's November cut to 2025 full-year growth forecast at 1.9% underscores softening labor market conditions and feeble Chinese demand, compounded by December's political turmoil following President Yoon's short-lived martial law declaration, which spiked volatility. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP data due January 2025, potential impeachment proceedings, and U.S. tariff risks under Trump, which could differentiate outcomes between sub-1% stagnation and mid-1% recovery via fiscal stimulus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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