Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly priced in 2.4 million to 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers for March 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughput data showing spring break stabilization around 2.5 million—March 15 recorded 2.567 million, following 2.423 million on March 14 and peaks near 2.8 million earlier in the week. This reflects resilient U.S. consumer spending and leisure travel demand amid low unemployment and moderating inflation, with airlines maintaining capacity despite jet fuel costs. Scenarios challenging this positioning include severe weather disruptions at major hubs like Atlanta or Dallas, or widespread flight cancellations, potentially dipping volumes below 2.4 million, though historical precedents suggest limited downside risk absent such shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado2.4M-2.6M 100.0%
<2.2M <1%
2.2M-2.4M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
$1,839 Vol.
$1,839 Vol.
Mar 16, 2026
<2.2M
No
2.2M-2.4M
No
2.4M-2.6M
Yes
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
>3.0M
No
2.4M-2.6M 100.0%
<2.2M <1%
2.2M-2.4M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
$1,839 Vol.
$1,839 Vol.
Mar 16, 2026
<2.2M
$0 Vol.
No
2.2M-2.4M
$0 Vol.
No
2.4M-2.6M
$0 Vol.
Yes
2.6M-2.8M
$0 Vol.
No
2.8M-3.0M
$1,839 Vol.
No
>3.0M
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 16, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly priced in 2.4 million to 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers for March 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughput data showing spring break stabilization around 2.5 million—March 15 recorded 2.567 million, following 2.423 million on March 14 and peaks near 2.8 million earlier in the week. This reflects resilient U.S. consumer spending and leisure travel demand amid low unemployment and moderating inflation, with airlines maintaining capacity despite jet fuel costs. Scenarios challenging this positioning include severe weather disruptions at major hubs like Atlanta or Dallas, or widespread flight cancellations, potentially dipping volumes below 2.4 million, though historical precedents suggest limited downside risk absent such shocks.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 16, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 10, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
Mar 16, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 16, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly priced in 2.4 million to 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers for March 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughput data showing spring break stabilization around 2.5 million—March 15 recorded 2.567 million, following 2.423 million on March 14 and peaks near 2.8 million earlier in the week. This reflects resilient U.S. consumer spending and leisure travel demand amid low unemployment and moderating inflation, with airlines maintaining capacity despite jet fuel costs. Scenarios challenging this positioning include severe weather disruptions at major hubs like Atlanta or Dallas, or widespread flight cancellations, potentially dipping volumes below 2.4 million, though historical precedents suggest limited downside risk absent such shocks.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 16, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
Mar 16, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly priced in 2.4 million to 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers for March 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughput data showing spring break stabilization around 2.5 million—March 15 recorded 2.567 million, following 2.423 million on March 14 and peaks near 2.8 million earlier in the week. This reflects resilient U.S. consumer spending and leisure travel demand amid low unemployment and moderating inflation, with airlines maintaining capacity despite jet fuel costs. Scenarios challenging this positioning include severe weather disruptions at major hubs like Atlanta or Dallas, or widespread flight cancellations, potentially dipping volumes below 2.4 million, though historical precedents suggest limited downside risk absent such shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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