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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 5.0%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,947,091 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 5.0%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,947,091 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$23,085 Vol.

57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,468 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$750,172 Vol.

5%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$557,639 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$276,910 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$351,168 Vol.

2%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$10,313 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$205,773 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$11,361 Vol.

1%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$13,100 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$68,230 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$58,400 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$39,702 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$11,556 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$24,760 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$55,445 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$40,366 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$28,433 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$76,335 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$113,406 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$58,914 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$29,045 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$64,605 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$25,075 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$36,831 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by opposition Tisza party's widening poll lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election—recent surveys from March 25 show Tisza surging amid economic discontent and unified anti-Orbán sentiment, potentially ending his 16-year rule. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under the Trump administration intensifies for leadership change amid deepening energy and economic crises, with Havana rejecting term negotiations in talks confirmed March 13 despite speculation of a Castro successor. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.1% reflects ongoing coalition fragility from ultra-Orthodox disputes and Gaza policy rifts, though no snap election looms. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of near-term upheaval.

Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by opposition Tisza party's widening poll lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election—recent surveys from March 25 show Tisza surging amid economic discontent and unified anti-Orbán sentiment, potentially ending his 16-year rule. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under the Trump administration intensifies for leadership change amid deepening energy and economic crises, with Havana rejecting term negotiations in talks confirmed March 13 despite speculation of a Castro successor. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.1% reflects ongoing coalition fragility from ultra-Orthodox disputes and Gaza policy rifts, though no snap election looms. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of near-term upheaval.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by opposition Tisza party's widening poll lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election—recent surveys from March 25 show Tisza surging amid economic discontent and unified anti-Orbán sentiment, potentially ending his 16-year rule. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under the Trump administration intensifies for leadership change amid deepening energy and economic crises, with Havana rejecting term negotiations in talks confirmed March 13 despite speculation of a Castro successor. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.1% reflects ongoing coalition fragility from ultra-Orthodox disputes and Gaza policy rifts, though no snap election looms. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of near-term upheaval.

Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by opposition Tisza party's widening poll lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12, 2026, parliamentary election—recent surveys from March 25 show Tisza surging amid economic discontent and unified anti-Orbán sentiment, potentially ending his 16-year rule. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under the Trump administration intensifies for leadership change amid deepening energy and economic crises, with Havana rejecting term negotiations in talks confirmed March 13 despite speculation of a Castro successor. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.1% reflects ongoing coalition fragility from ultra-Orthodox disputes and Gaza policy rifts, though no snap election looms. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of near-term upheaval.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 57%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 57¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $2.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 57%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.