Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, reflecting the absence of de-escalatory signals or verified ceasefires since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, which Iran downplayed as limited. Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah clashes with Israel, sustain perceptions of persistent hostilities without a clear endpoint. Diplomatic efforts, such as stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, have yielded no breakthroughs. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden bilateral ceasefire announcement, de-escalation in proxy conflicts, or major diplomatic summit outcomes, though historical patterns in Israel-Iran shadow wars show low likelihood of near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAcción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 96%
30 de marzo 1.9%
29 de marzo 1.4%
31 de marzo 1.1%
$2,585,078 Vol.
$2,585,078 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de marzo
<1%
27 de marzo
<1%
28 de marzo
<1%
29 de marzo
1%
30 de marzo
2%
31 de marzo
1%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
96%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 96%
30 de marzo 1.9%
29 de marzo 1.4%
31 de marzo 1.1%
$2,585,078 Vol.
$2,585,078 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de marzo
$326,382 Vol.
<1%
27 de marzo
$340,372 Vol.
<1%
28 de marzo
$311,021 Vol.
<1%
29 de marzo
$268,867 Vol.
1%
30 de marzo
$276,949 Vol.
2%
31 de marzo
$368,822 Vol.
1%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
$560,108 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, reflecting the absence of de-escalatory signals or verified ceasefires since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, which Iran downplayed as limited. Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah clashes with Israel, sustain perceptions of persistent hostilities without a clear endpoint. Diplomatic efforts, such as stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, have yielded no breakthroughs. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden bilateral ceasefire announcement, de-escalation in proxy conflicts, or major diplomatic summit outcomes, though historical patterns in Israel-Iran shadow wars show low likelihood of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,585,078Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, reflecting the absence of de-escalatory signals or verified ceasefires since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, which Iran downplayed as limited. Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah clashes with Israel, sustain perceptions of persistent hostilities without a clear endpoint. Diplomatic efforts, such as stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, have yielded no breakthroughs. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden bilateral ceasefire announcement, de-escalation in proxy conflicts, or major diplomatic summit outcomes, though historical patterns in Israel-Iran shadow wars show low likelihood of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,585,078Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, reflecting the absence of de-escalatory signals or verified ceasefires since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, which Iran downplayed as limited. Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah clashes with Israel, sustain perceptions of persistent hostilities without a clear endpoint. Diplomatic efforts, such as stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, have yielded no breakthroughs. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden bilateral ceasefire announcement, de-escalation in proxy conflicts, or major diplomatic summit outcomes, though historical patterns in Israel-Iran shadow wars show low likelihood of near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes