Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's firm control over security forces and recent inauguration for a new term on January 10 solidify trader consensus at 99.5% against exile to Russia by March 31, as he remains active in Caracas amid disputed July 2024 election results. Backed by military loyalty and allies including Russia—which provides diplomatic support but no exile signals—Maduro faces opposition protests and U.S. sanctions non-recognition, yet shows no displacement indicators. High confidence stems from absent primary evidence of regime collapse or flight plans. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden military defections, escalated internal unrest, or abrupt diplomatic pressure, though historical precedents favor status quo resilience.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$147,956 Vol.
$147,956 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$147,956 Vol.
$147,956 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$147,956Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$147,956Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's firm control over security forces and recent inauguration for a new term on January 10 solidify trader consensus at 99.5% against exile to Russia by March 31, as he remains active in Caracas amid disputed July 2024 election results. Backed by military loyalty and allies including Russia—which provides diplomatic support but no exile signals—Maduro faces opposition protests and U.S. sanctions non-recognition, yet shows no displacement indicators. High confidence stems from absent primary evidence of regime collapse or flight plans. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden military defections, escalated internal unrest, or abrupt diplomatic pressure, though historical precedents favor status quo resilience.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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