France's ongoing parliamentary fragmentation, stemming from the 2024 snap legislative elections, has produced repeated government collapses through no-confidence votes and prime ministerial turnover, including the brief tenure of Sébastien Lecornu in late 2025. President Emmanuel Macron has consistently rejected resignation calls from opposition parties and some former allies, reaffirming his intent to complete his second and final term ending in May 2027. Constitutional constraints limit options for early removal absent his voluntary departure, while budget negotiations and legislative sessions continue without triggering mechanisms that would force an exit. Traders reflect this stability in minimal implied probabilities for departure before mid-2026, though further instability around fiscal deadlines or coalition talks could test that positioning.