**France’s fragmented National Assembly and repeated fiscal standoffs have kept the prospect of another snap legislative election low through late 2026.** President Macron’s 2024 dissolution produced a hung parliament that has already forced multiple prime ministers and delayed the 2026 budget for months. With the one-year constitutional restriction on further dissolution long expired, Macron has instead appointed Sébastien Lecornu and sought cross-bloc support to pass spending measures, while facing no-confidence motions from both the National Rally and France Unbowed. Recent polling and reporting indicate the Socialists are unlikely to back those motions, allowing the budget to clear and giving the minority government breathing room. Traders therefore assign only single-digit implied probabilities to a call by year-end or mid-2026, viewing the president’s priority as maintaining institutional stability until the April–May 2027 presidential contest rather than risking further volatility. The next scheduled legislative vote remains 2029 absent dissolution, and any earlier trigger would require the current government to fall and Macron to judge that fresh elections improve his bloc’s position ahead of the presidential transition.