Amid the U.S.-Israel airstrike campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026—which has expanded to include strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, militia sites in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi targets in Yemen—traders anticipate continued multi-country operations into April, pricing ≥4 countries at 49.5% and 3 at 38%. Recent developments, including Yemen's first missile attack on Israel on March 28 and Israeli surges targeting Tehran's missile production and nuclear infrastructure, signal no de-escalation despite U.S. President Trump's delayed ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz. IDF statements affirm combat plans through mid-April Passover, underscoring the seven-front war's momentum as the dominant driver of elevated odds for sustained strikes across borders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 50%
3 38%
2 7%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
7%
3
38%
≥4
50%
≥4 50%
3 38%
2 7%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$310 Vol.
3%
2
$523 Vol.
7%
3
$811 Vol.
38%
≥4
$708 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the U.S.-Israel airstrike campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026—which has expanded to include strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, militia sites in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi targets in Yemen—traders anticipate continued multi-country operations into April, pricing ≥4 countries at 49.5% and 3 at 38%. Recent developments, including Yemen's first missile attack on Israel on March 28 and Israeli surges targeting Tehran's missile production and nuclear infrastructure, signal no de-escalation despite U.S. President Trump's delayed ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz. IDF statements affirm combat plans through mid-April Passover, underscoring the seven-front war's momentum as the dominant driver of elevated odds for sustained strikes across borders.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$2,351Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the U.S.-Israel airstrike campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026—which has expanded to include strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, militia sites in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi targets in Yemen—traders anticipate continued multi-country operations into April, pricing ≥4 countries at 49.5% and 3 at 38%. Recent developments, including Yemen's first missile attack on Israel on March 28 and Israeli surges targeting Tehran's missile production and nuclear infrastructure, signal no de-escalation despite U.S. President Trump's delayed ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz. IDF statements affirm combat plans through mid-April Passover, underscoring the seven-front war's momentum as the dominant driver of elevated odds for sustained strikes across borders.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,351Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the U.S.-Israel airstrike campaign against Iran launched on February 28, 2026—which has expanded to include strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, militia sites in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi targets in Yemen—traders anticipate continued multi-country operations into April, pricing ≥4 countries at 49.5% and 3 at 38%. Recent developments, including Yemen's first missile attack on Israel on March 28 and Israeli surges targeting Tehran's missile production and nuclear infrastructure, signal no de-escalation despite U.S. President Trump's delayed ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz. IDF statements affirm combat plans through mid-April Passover, underscoring the seven-front war's momentum as the dominant driver of elevated odds for sustained strikes across borders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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