Amid the US-Israel war with Iran launched February 28, trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty over Israeli strikes across multiple countries in April, with ≥4 (47.5%), 3 (45%), and 2 (42%) nearly matched as implied probabilities. Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and infrastructure targets—including Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz—as of March 26 sustain high odds for Iran continuation, paired with ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Routine actions in Syria or Yemen via Houthi proxies could push toward 3, while escalation to Iraqi militias or Gulf responses to Iranian barrages might drive ≥4; conversely, diplomatic de-escalation signals or regime collapse in Tehran could limit to ≤2, keeping the race competitive.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 48%
2 38%
≤1 8%
3 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
8%
2
38%
3
46%
≥4
48%
≥4 48%
2 38%
≤1 8%
3 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$36 Vol.
8%
2
$1 Vol.
38%
3
$128 Vol.
46%
≥4
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran launched February 28, trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty over Israeli strikes across multiple countries in April, with ≥4 (47.5%), 3 (45%), and 2 (42%) nearly matched as implied probabilities. Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and infrastructure targets—including Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz—as of March 26 sustain high odds for Iran continuation, paired with ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Routine actions in Syria or Yemen via Houthi proxies could push toward 3, while escalation to Iraqi militias or Gulf responses to Iranian barrages might drive ≥4; conversely, diplomatic de-escalation signals or regime collapse in Tehran could limit to ≤2, keeping the race competitive.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$165Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran launched February 28, trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty over Israeli strikes across multiple countries in April, with ≥4 (47.5%), 3 (45%), and 2 (42%) nearly matched as implied probabilities. Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and infrastructure targets—including Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz—as of March 26 sustain high odds for Iran continuation, paired with ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Routine actions in Syria or Yemen via Houthi proxies could push toward 3, while escalation to Iraqi militias or Gulf responses to Iranian barrages might drive ≥4; conversely, diplomatic de-escalation signals or regime collapse in Tehran could limit to ≤2, keeping the race competitive.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$165Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the US-Israel war with Iran launched February 28, trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty over Israeli strikes across multiple countries in April, with ≥4 (47.5%), 3 (45%), and 2 (42%) nearly matched as implied probabilities. Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and infrastructure targets—including Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz—as of March 26 sustain high odds for Iran continuation, paired with ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Routine actions in Syria or Yemen via Houthi proxies could push toward 3, while escalation to Iraqi militias or Gulf responses to Iranian barrages might drive ≥4; conversely, diplomatic de-escalation signals or regime collapse in Tehran could limit to ≤2, keeping the race competitive.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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