Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 35% probability of Houthi success in targeting shipping by year-end, driven primarily by intensified US-UK airstrikes degrading Houthi capabilities while attacks persist amid resilient drone and missile arsenals. Key financial dynamics include war risk insurance premiums surging over 300% to $3.5 million per transit for some vessels, per Lloyd's of London data, and container freight rates doubling year-to-date via Shanghai-Europe routes according to Drewry indices, fueling global supply chain inflation risks. Watch for escalated coalition operations or Yemen diplomatic breakthroughs, alongside weekly USMNF reports on interceptions, as pivotal catalysts for shifting odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Los hutíes apuntan con éxito al envío antes del...?
¿Los hutíes apuntan con éxito al envío antes del...?
$24,280 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 de marzo
12%
15 de abril
33%
April 30
50%
$24,280 Vol.
31 de marzo
$24,280 Vol.
12%
15 de abril
$0 Vol.
33%
April 30
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volumen
$24,280Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$24,280Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 35% probability of Houthi success in targeting shipping by year-end, driven primarily by intensified US-UK airstrikes degrading Houthi capabilities while attacks persist amid resilient drone and missile arsenals. Key financial dynamics include war risk insurance premiums surging over 300% to $3.5 million per transit for some vessels, per Lloyd's of London data, and container freight rates doubling year-to-date via Shanghai-Europe routes according to Drewry indices, fueling global supply chain inflation risks. Watch for escalated coalition operations or Yemen diplomatic breakthroughs, alongside weekly USMNF reports on interceptions, as pivotal catalysts for shifting odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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