Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–20°C due to typical early spring variability. Recent JMA three-to-seven-day forecasts show mild conditions under a weakening La Niña transition to neutral ENSO phase, featuring potential weak high-pressure ridges fostering daytime highs near 18–19°C, but divergent runs highlight risks of cooler 13–15°C outcomes from passing fronts or cloud cover versus warmer 21–22°C spikes under clearer skies. Historical April 9 data averages 17–19°C with a 5°C standard deviation, amplified by urban heat effects; watch JMA updates tomorrow for refined guidance on frontal timing and solar insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 9?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 9?
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
18°C 21%
20°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 abr 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
18%
17°C
21%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
20%
21°C
18%
22°C or higher
17%
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
18°C 21%
20°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 abr 2026
12°C or below
$194 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$273 Vol.
1%
14°C
$63 Vol.
2%
15°C
$22 Vol.
6%
16°C
$3 Vol.
18%
17°C
$10 Vol.
21%
18°C
$116 Vol.
21%
19°C
$10 Vol.
21%
20°C
$3 Vol.
20%
21°C
$10 Vol.
18%
22°C or higher
$10 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–20°C due to typical early spring variability. Recent JMA three-to-seven-day forecasts show mild conditions under a weakening La Niña transition to neutral ENSO phase, featuring potential weak high-pressure ridges fostering daytime highs near 18–19°C, but divergent runs highlight risks of cooler 13–15°C outcomes from passing fronts or cloud cover versus warmer 21–22°C spikes under clearer skies. Historical April 9 data averages 17–19°C with a 5°C standard deviation, amplified by urban heat effects; watch JMA updates tomorrow for refined guidance on frontal timing and solar insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volumen
$715Fecha de finalización
9 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–20°C due to typical early spring variability. Recent JMA three-to-seven-day forecasts show mild conditions under a weakening La Niña transition to neutral ENSO phase, featuring potential weak high-pressure ridges fostering daytime highs near 18–19°C, but divergent runs highlight risks of cooler 13–15°C outcomes from passing fronts or cloud cover versus warmer 21–22°C spikes under clearer skies. Historical April 9 data averages 17–19°C with a 5°C standard deviation, amplified by urban heat effects; watch JMA updates tomorrow for refined guidance on frontal timing and solar insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$715Fecha de finalización
9 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–20°C due to typical early spring variability. Recent JMA three-to-seven-day forecasts show mild conditions under a weakening La Niña transition to neutral ENSO phase, featuring potential weak high-pressure ridges fostering daytime highs near 18–19°C, but divergent runs highlight risks of cooler 13–15°C outcomes from passing fronts or cloud cover versus warmer 21–22°C spikes under clearer skies. Historical April 9 data averages 17–19°C with a 5°C standard deviation, amplified by urban heat effects; watch JMA updates tomorrow for refined guidance on frontal timing and solar insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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