Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 16°C for Tokyo on April 8, with probabilities tightly clustered at 15-19°C reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, as Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models project 20°C under mostly sunny skies but ensembles show spread due to variable spring weather patterns. Recent JMA updates from April 5 highlight cooling after 24°C highs earlier in the week, influenced by shifting high pressure ridges and potential frontal cloudiness suppressing solar heating, while historical early April averages hover around 16°C amid urban heat island effects at the official Tokyo station. Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting warmth versus northerly flows or overcast skies favoring cooler outcomes; watch daily JMA revisions and ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
16°C 27%
17°C 22%
15°C 13%
18°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 abr 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
9%
14°C
8%
15°C
13%
16°C
27%
17°C
22%
18°C
19%
19°C
12%
20°C or higher
7%
16°C 27%
17°C 22%
15°C 13%
18°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 abr 2026
10°C or below
$198 Vol.
1%
11°C
$350 Vol.
1%
12°C
$288 Vol.
3%
13°C
$469 Vol.
9%
14°C
$55 Vol.
8%
15°C
$26 Vol.
13%
16°C
$116 Vol.
27%
17°C
$8 Vol.
22%
18°C
$36 Vol.
19%
19°C
$31 Vol.
12%
20°C or higher
$148 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 16°C for Tokyo on April 8, with probabilities tightly clustered at 15-19°C reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, as Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models project 20°C under mostly sunny skies but ensembles show spread due to variable spring weather patterns. Recent JMA updates from April 5 highlight cooling after 24°C highs earlier in the week, influenced by shifting high pressure ridges and potential frontal cloudiness suppressing solar heating, while historical early April averages hover around 16°C amid urban heat island effects at the official Tokyo station. Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting warmth versus northerly flows or overcast skies favoring cooler outcomes; watch daily JMA revisions and ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$1,726Fecha de finalización
8 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 16°C for Tokyo on April 8, with probabilities tightly clustered at 15-19°C reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, as Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models project 20°C under mostly sunny skies but ensembles show spread due to variable spring weather patterns. Recent JMA updates from April 5 highlight cooling after 24°C highs earlier in the week, influenced by shifting high pressure ridges and potential frontal cloudiness suppressing solar heating, while historical early April averages hover around 16°C amid urban heat island effects at the official Tokyo station. Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting warmth versus northerly flows or overcast skies favoring cooler outcomes; watch daily JMA revisions and ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,726Fecha de finalización
8 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 16°C for Tokyo on April 8, with probabilities tightly clustered at 15-19°C reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, as Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models project 20°C under mostly sunny skies but ensembles show spread due to variable spring weather patterns. Recent JMA updates from April 5 highlight cooling after 24°C highs earlier in the week, influenced by shifting high pressure ridges and potential frontal cloudiness suppressing solar heating, while historical early April averages hover around 16°C amid urban heat island effects at the official Tokyo station. Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting warmth versus northerly flows or overcast skies favoring cooler outcomes; watch daily JMA revisions and ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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