Traders assign a 34% implied probability to a 29°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maxima around 28–30°C amid stable subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity. Recent observations show March 27 highs near 28°C with partly cloudy skies, supporting continuity without intense heat or cold fronts; climatological norms for late March average 27–29°C, influenced by urban heat island effects in the city. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover, afternoon sea breezes, and model divergences—GFS slightly warmer, ECMWF cooler— with INMET's evening update potentially shifting odds as resolution nears. Lower outcomes like 27°C (5.5%) or below hinge on increased southerly winds, while 30°C+ (under 25% combined) requires unexpected clearing and solar heating.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
29°C 33%
30°C 23%
31°C 18%
28°C 12%
$23,455 Vol.
$23,455 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
12%
29°C
33%
30°C
23%
31°C
18%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
30°C 23%
31°C 18%
28°C 12%
$23,455 Vol.
$23,455 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
24°C or below
$4,667 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,566 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,547 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,681 Vol.
6%
28°C
$1,804 Vol.
12%
29°C
$2,229 Vol.
33%
30°C
$1,860 Vol.
23%
31°C
$1,895 Vol.
18%
32°C
$1,863 Vol.
3%
33°C
$1,786 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$2,592 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign a 34% implied probability to a 29°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maxima around 28–30°C amid stable subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity. Recent observations show March 27 highs near 28°C with partly cloudy skies, supporting continuity without intense heat or cold fronts; climatological norms for late March average 27–29°C, influenced by urban heat island effects in the city. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover, afternoon sea breezes, and model divergences—GFS slightly warmer, ECMWF cooler— with INMET's evening update potentially shifting odds as resolution nears. Lower outcomes like 27°C (5.5%) or below hinge on increased southerly winds, while 30°C+ (under 25% combined) requires unexpected clearing and solar heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Volumen
$23,455Fecha de finalización
Mar 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign a 34% implied probability to a 29°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maxima around 28–30°C amid stable subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity. Recent observations show March 27 highs near 28°C with partly cloudy skies, supporting continuity without intense heat or cold fronts; climatological norms for late March average 27–29°C, influenced by urban heat island effects in the city. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover, afternoon sea breezes, and model divergences—GFS slightly warmer, ECMWF cooler— with INMET's evening update potentially shifting odds as resolution nears. Lower outcomes like 27°C (5.5%) or below hinge on increased southerly winds, while 30°C+ (under 25% combined) requires unexpected clearing and solar heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,455Fecha de finalización
Mar 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 34% implied probability to a 29°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maxima around 28–30°C amid stable subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity. Recent observations show March 27 highs near 28°C with partly cloudy skies, supporting continuity without intense heat or cold fronts; climatological norms for late March average 27–29°C, influenced by urban heat island effects in the city. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover, afternoon sea breezes, and model divergences—GFS slightly warmer, ECMWF cooler— with INMET's evening update potentially shifting odds as resolution nears. Lower outcomes like 27°C (5.5%) or below hinge on increased southerly winds, while 30°C+ (under 25% combined) requires unexpected clearing and solar heating.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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