Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—coupled with an unemployment rate dipping to 4.3% and sticky February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target. This data underscores labor market resilience and persistent price pressures, aligning with the Fed's recent policy pause and dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected April jobs or CPI prints, or dovish signals from the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds now at 6.5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 7%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,683,925 Vol.
$5,683,925 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
7%
Sin cambios
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 7%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,683,925 Vol.
$5,683,925 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,608,512 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$859,703 Vol.
7%
Sin cambios
$1,175,370 Vol.
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$1,111,214 Vol.
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$929,127 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—coupled with an unemployment rate dipping to 4.3% and sticky February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target. This data underscores labor market resilience and persistent price pressures, aligning with the Fed's recent policy pause and dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected April jobs or CPI prints, or dovish signals from the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds now at 6.5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$5,683,925Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—coupled with an unemployment rate dipping to 4.3% and sticky February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target. This data underscores labor market resilience and persistent price pressures, aligning with the Fed's recent policy pause and dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected April jobs or CPI prints, or dovish signals from the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds now at 6.5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,683,925Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—coupled with an unemployment rate dipping to 4.3% and sticky February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target. This data underscores labor market resilience and persistent price pressures, aligning with the Fed's recent policy pause and dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected April jobs or CPI prints, or dovish signals from the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds now at 6.5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes