Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient U.S. labor market and steady inflation trajectory. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with Chair Powell recently signaling a "wait and see" stance amid geopolitical oil shocks during Harvard remarks on March 30. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000-70,000 expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing economic strength and slashing rate-cut odds to 6.4% combined. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting the hold. A hotter-than-expected April 10 CPI print or escalating inflation could revive hike risks (4.2% priced), though sharp labor weakening remains a cut catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,416,025 Vol.
$5,416,025 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambios
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,416,025 Vol.
$5,416,025 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,581,923 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$739,080 Vol.
6%
Sin cambios
$1,121,756 Vol.
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$1,080,785 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$892,482 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient U.S. labor market and steady inflation trajectory. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with Chair Powell recently signaling a "wait and see" stance amid geopolitical oil shocks during Harvard remarks on March 30. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000-70,000 expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing economic strength and slashing rate-cut odds to 6.4% combined. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting the hold. A hotter-than-expected April 10 CPI print or escalating inflation could revive hike risks (4.2% priced), though sharp labor weakening remains a cut catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$5,416,025Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient U.S. labor market and steady inflation trajectory. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with Chair Powell recently signaling a "wait and see" stance amid geopolitical oil shocks during Harvard remarks on March 30. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000-70,000 expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing economic strength and slashing rate-cut odds to 6.4% combined. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting the hold. A hotter-than-expected April 10 CPI print or escalating inflation could revive hike risks (4.2% priced), though sharp labor weakening remains a cut catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,416,025Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient U.S. labor market and steady inflation trajectory. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with Chair Powell recently signaling a "wait and see" stance amid geopolitical oil shocks during Harvard remarks on March 30. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000-70,000 expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing economic strength and slashing rate-cut odds to 6.4% combined. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting the hold. A hotter-than-expected April 10 CPI print or escalating inflation could revive hike risks (4.2% priced), though sharp labor weakening remains a cut catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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