Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient labor market revealed in Friday's March nonfarm payrolls report—178,000 jobs added exceeding forecasts, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid inflation hovering near 2.4% year-over-year through February. This positioning reflects steady policy amid balanced risks, though a hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or surging oil from geopolitical tensions could prompt reassessment for cuts or hikes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 98.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$50,449,770 Vol.
$50,449,770 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
98%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 98.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$50,449,770 Vol.
$50,449,770 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$17,395,474 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$10,689,638 Vol.
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
$11,099,137 Vol.
98%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
$11,265,886 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient labor market revealed in Friday's March nonfarm payrolls report—178,000 jobs added exceeding forecasts, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid inflation hovering near 2.4% year-over-year through February. This positioning reflects steady policy amid balanced risks, though a hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or surging oil from geopolitical tensions could prompt reassessment for cuts or hikes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$50,449,770Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient labor market revealed in Friday's March nonfarm payrolls report—178,000 jobs added exceeding forecasts, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid inflation hovering near 2.4% year-over-year through February. This positioning reflects steady policy amid balanced risks, though a hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or surging oil from geopolitical tensions could prompt reassessment for cuts or hikes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$50,449,770Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the resilient labor market revealed in Friday's March nonfarm payrolls report—178,000 jobs added exceeding forecasts, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid inflation hovering near 2.4% year-over-year through February. This positioning reflects steady policy amid balanced risks, though a hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or surging oil from geopolitical tensions could prompt reassessment for cuts or hikes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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