Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X posts for March 31–April 7 tightly clusters around 240–319 at over 45% combined implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume social media engagement averaging 35–45 posts daily amid Tesla FSD safety updates and political commentary. Recent weeks show variance—March 20–27 resolved near 260–279, while March 17–24 hit 360–379—driven by spikes from viral threads like Starship factory praise and fraudster critiques, but no seismic shifts in the past 48 hours. Competitive dynamics hinge on upcoming SpaceX Transporter-16 launch spillover on March 30 and potential quiet engineering focus, with swing factors like controversy-fueled reposts or meme responses poised to tip between lower 240s and higher 300s bins as the wisdom of crowds prices in his unpredictable pop culture pulse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado260-279 13%
240-259 12%
280-299 12%
300-319 12%
$2,217,310 Vol.
$2,217,310 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
7%
220-239
8%
240-259
12%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
12%
320-339
11%
340-359
9%
360-379
7%
380-399
5%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 13%
240-259 12%
280-299 12%
300-319 12%
$2,217,310 Vol.
$2,217,310 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
7%
220-239
8%
240-259
12%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
12%
320-339
11%
340-359
9%
360-379
7%
380-399
5%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 28, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X posts for March 31–April 7 tightly clusters around 240–319 at over 45% combined implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume social media engagement averaging 35–45 posts daily amid Tesla FSD safety updates and political commentary. Recent weeks show variance—March 20–27 resolved near 260–279, while March 17–24 hit 360–379—driven by spikes from viral threads like Starship factory praise and fraudster critiques, but no seismic shifts in the past 48 hours. Competitive dynamics hinge on upcoming SpaceX Transporter-16 launch spillover on March 30 and potential quiet engineering focus, with swing factors like controversy-fueled reposts or meme responses poised to tip between lower 240s and higher 300s bins as the wisdom of crowds prices in his unpredictable pop culture pulse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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