Alphabet's market cap surged over 13% following its April 25 Q1 earnings beat—revenue up 15% year-over-year, cloud segment growing 28%—closing the gap with Nvidia and positioning it as the trader-favored contender for third-largest by April 30 at 65.5% implied probability. Nvidia's 2.5% odds reflect a recent 10% share price retreat amid ASML's China guidance cut and broader semiconductor sector rotation, eroding its prior third-place hold. Apple's 25.5% pricing stems from persistent China iPhone sales weakness and EU antitrust pressures weighing on its second-place standing, while Microsoft (1.1%) remains entrenched atop at $3.15 trillion. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price in limited volatility through month-end close, with no major catalysts pending.