Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the persistent Red Sea security crisis that has reduced northbound container traffic by over 70% year-over-year per Suez Canal Authority data through November 2024. Houthi attacks continue unabated despite U.S.-led airstrikes, forcing major carriers like Maersk and MSC to maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated insurance premiums and voyage times extended by 10-14 days. This dynamic has locked in low transit volumes, with monthly figures hovering below 400 ships versus pre-crisis peaks above 1,000. Tail risks include an improbable Yemen ceasefire or naval escalation clearing the route, though no near-term diplomatic breakthroughs are evident ahead of key U.S. policy shifts in 2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Más de 1k tránsitos de portacontenedores del Canal de Suez en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Más de 1k tránsitos de portacontenedores del Canal de Suez en el primer trimestre de 2026?
Sí
$49,683 Vol.
$49,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$49,683 Vol.
$49,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the persistent Red Sea security crisis that has reduced northbound container traffic by over 70% year-over-year per Suez Canal Authority data through November 2024. Houthi attacks continue unabated despite U.S.-led airstrikes, forcing major carriers like Maersk and MSC to maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated insurance premiums and voyage times extended by 10-14 days. This dynamic has locked in low transit volumes, with monthly figures hovering below 400 ships versus pre-crisis peaks above 1,000. Tail risks include an improbable Yemen ceasefire or naval escalation clearing the route, though no near-term diplomatic breakthroughs are evident ahead of key U.S. policy shifts in 2025.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$49,683Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the persistent Red Sea security crisis that has reduced northbound container traffic by over 70% year-over-year per Suez Canal Authority data through November 2024. Houthi attacks continue unabated despite U.S.-led airstrikes, forcing major carriers like Maersk and MSC to maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated insurance premiums and voyage times extended by 10-14 days. This dynamic has locked in low transit volumes, with monthly figures hovering below 400 ships versus pre-crisis peaks above 1,000. Tail risks include an improbable Yemen ceasefire or naval escalation clearing the route, though no near-term diplomatic breakthroughs are evident ahead of key U.S. policy shifts in 2025.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volumen
$49,683Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the persistent Red Sea security crisis that has reduced northbound container traffic by over 70% year-over-year per Suez Canal Authority data through November 2024. Houthi attacks continue unabated despite U.S.-led airstrikes, forcing major carriers like Maersk and MSC to maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated insurance premiums and voyage times extended by 10-14 days. This dynamic has locked in low transit volumes, with monthly figures hovering below 400 ships versus pre-crisis peaks above 1,000. Tail risks include an improbable Yemen ceasefire or naval escalation clearing the route, though no near-term diplomatic breakthroughs are evident ahead of key U.S. policy shifts in 2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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