Recent polls showing Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 7-16 points among likely Republican primary voters have driven trader consensus toward Paxton victory margins of 9% or more at 33.7% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate GOP primary runoff market. Since the March 3 first round—where neither cleared 50%, forcing the top-two matchup—surveys from Quantus Insights, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Impact Research highlight Paxton's edge, fueled by his strong favorability (+30 net) among base conservatives drawn to his Trump-aligned record on border security and anti-establishment stance, versus Cornyn's incumbency and leadership role. CPAC's March 28 endorsement bolsters Paxton, with Wesley Hunt's first-round voters leaning his way. Low-turnout runoffs could consolidate motivated support behind Paxton, though a Trump endorsement might widen gaps per polls, while Cornyn's fundraising advantages or scandals could narrow them.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPaxton 9%+ 33.7%
Paxton 6–9% 20%
Paxton <3% 12.2%
Cornyn 9%+ 12%
$38,815 Vol.
$38,815 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
34%
Paxton 6–9%
20%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
12%
Cornyn <3%
10%
Cornyn 3–6%
5%
Cornyn 6–9%
1%
Cornyn 9%+
12%
Paxton 9%+ 33.7%
Paxton 6–9% 20%
Paxton <3% 12.2%
Cornyn 9%+ 12%
$38,815 Vol.
$38,815 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$6,298 Vol.
34%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,876 Vol.
20%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,839 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,787 Vol.
12%
Cornyn <3%
$3,441 Vol.
10%
Cornyn 3–6%
$3,913 Vol.
5%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,074 Vol.
1%
Cornyn 9%+
$6,587 Vol.
12%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls showing Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 7-16 points among likely Republican primary voters have driven trader consensus toward Paxton victory margins of 9% or more at 33.7% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate GOP primary runoff market. Since the March 3 first round—where neither cleared 50%, forcing the top-two matchup—surveys from Quantus Insights, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Impact Research highlight Paxton's edge, fueled by his strong favorability (+30 net) among base conservatives drawn to his Trump-aligned record on border security and anti-establishment stance, versus Cornyn's incumbency and leadership role. CPAC's March 28 endorsement bolsters Paxton, with Wesley Hunt's first-round voters leaning his way. Low-turnout runoffs could consolidate motivated support behind Paxton, though a Trump endorsement might widen gaps per polls, while Cornyn's fundraising advantages or scandals could narrow them.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$38,815Enddatum
May 25, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls showing Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 7-16 points among likely Republican primary voters have driven trader consensus toward Paxton victory margins of 9% or more at 33.7% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate GOP primary runoff market. Since the March 3 first round—where neither cleared 50%, forcing the top-two matchup—surveys from Quantus Insights, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Impact Research highlight Paxton's edge, fueled by his strong favorability (+30 net) among base conservatives drawn to his Trump-aligned record on border security and anti-establishment stance, versus Cornyn's incumbency and leadership role. CPAC's March 28 endorsement bolsters Paxton, with Wesley Hunt's first-round voters leaning his way. Low-turnout runoffs could consolidate motivated support behind Paxton, though a Trump endorsement might widen gaps per polls, while Cornyn's fundraising advantages or scandals could narrow them.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$38,815Enddatum
May 25, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls showing Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 7-16 points among likely Republican primary voters have driven trader consensus toward Paxton victory margins of 9% or more at 33.7% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate GOP primary runoff market. Since the March 3 first round—where neither cleared 50%, forcing the top-two matchup—surveys from Quantus Insights, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Impact Research highlight Paxton's edge, fueled by his strong favorability (+30 net) among base conservatives drawn to his Trump-aligned record on border security and anti-establishment stance, versus Cornyn's incumbency and leadership role. CPAC's March 28 endorsement bolsters Paxton, with Wesley Hunt's first-round voters leaning his way. Low-turnout runoffs could consolidate motivated support behind Paxton, though a Trump endorsement might widen gaps per polls, while Cornyn's fundraising advantages or scandals could narrow them.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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