All Illinois Democratic U.S. House incumbents comfortably won their March 17, 2026, primaries, with no upsets reported across districts like the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, and others held by figures such as Jonathan Jackson, Delia Ramirez, Jesús "Chuy" García, Sean Casten, Brad Schneider, and Raja Krishnamoorthi. Trader consensus at 97.9% "No" reflects the entrenched incumbency advantage—superior fundraising, name recognition, and party machinery in safe blue districts—coupled with the absence of credible primary challengers beforehand. Historical base rates show U.S. House incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% since 2000), especially Democrats in Illinois. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election audits, recounts in tight races (none apparent), or rare certification disputes before June deadlines, though evidence points to straightforward resolutions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17. März 2026
$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17. März 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.All Illinois Democratic U.S. House incumbents comfortably won their March 17, 2026, primaries, with no upsets reported across districts like the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, and others held by figures such as Jonathan Jackson, Delia Ramirez, Jesús "Chuy" García, Sean Casten, Brad Schneider, and Raja Krishnamoorthi. Trader consensus at 97.9% "No" reflects the entrenched incumbency advantage—superior fundraising, name recognition, and party machinery in safe blue districts—coupled with the absence of credible primary challengers beforehand. Historical base rates show U.S. House incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% since 2000), especially Democrats in Illinois. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election audits, recounts in tight races (none apparent), or rare certification disputes before June deadlines, though evidence points to straightforward resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volumen
$413Enddatum
17. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.All Illinois Democratic U.S. House incumbents comfortably won their March 17, 2026, primaries, with no upsets reported across districts like the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, and others held by figures such as Jonathan Jackson, Delia Ramirez, Jesús "Chuy" García, Sean Casten, Brad Schneider, and Raja Krishnamoorthi. Trader consensus at 97.9% "No" reflects the entrenched incumbency advantage—superior fundraising, name recognition, and party machinery in safe blue districts—coupled with the absence of credible primary challengers beforehand. Historical base rates show U.S. House incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% since 2000), especially Democrats in Illinois. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election audits, recounts in tight races (none apparent), or rare certification disputes before June deadlines, though evidence points to straightforward resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$413Enddatum
17. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...All Illinois Democratic U.S. House incumbents comfortably won their March 17, 2026, primaries, with no upsets reported across districts like the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, and others held by figures such as Jonathan Jackson, Delia Ramirez, Jesús "Chuy" García, Sean Casten, Brad Schneider, and Raja Krishnamoorthi. Trader consensus at 97.9% "No" reflects the entrenched incumbency advantage—superior fundraising, name recognition, and party machinery in safe blue districts—coupled with the absence of credible primary challengers beforehand. Historical base rates show U.S. House incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% since 2000), especially Democrats in Illinois. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election audits, recounts in tight races (none apparent), or rare certification disputes before June deadlines, though evidence points to straightforward resolutions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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