Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$124,755 Vol.

Regeln

On February 20, multiple buses exploded in Tel Aviv (see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-suspected-after-2-buses-explode-in-parking-lots-in-tel-aviv-suburb-nobody-hurt/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the bombing by February 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only individuals arrested in direct connection to the attack will qualify. Arrests of suspected accomplices who did not directly participate in the planting of these explosives will not count. Actions such as questioning or detention without a formal arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If an arrest is made, this market may remain open beyond the end date in order to confirm whether the arrested individual qualifies according to the rules.

The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$124,755
Enddatum
Apr 30, 2025
Erstellt am
Feb 20, 2025, 6:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
On February 20, multiple buses exploded in Tel Aviv (see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-suspected-after-2-buses-explode-in-parking-lots-in-tel-aviv-suburb-nobody-hurt/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the bombing by February 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals arrested in direct connection to the attack will qualify. Arrests of suspected accomplices who did not directly participate in the planting of these explosives will not count. Actions such as questioning or detention without a formal arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If an arrest is made, this market may remain open beyond the end date in order to confirm whether the arrested individual qualifies according to the rules. The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$124,755 Vol.

Über

On February 20, multiple buses exploded in Tel Aviv (see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-suspected-after-2-buses-explode-in-parking-lots-in-tel-aviv-suburb-nobody-hurt/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the bombing by February 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only individuals arrested in direct connection to the attack will qualify. Arrests of suspected accomplices who did not directly participate in the planting of these explosives will not count. Actions such as questioning or detention without a formal arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If an arrest is made, this market may remain open beyond the end date in order to confirm whether the arrested individual qualifies according to the rules.

The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$124,755
Enddatum
Feb 21, 2025
Erstellt am
Feb 20, 2025, 6:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
On February 20, multiple buses exploded in Tel Aviv (see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-suspected-after-2-buses-explode-in-parking-lots-in-tel-aviv-suburb-nobody-hurt/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the bombing by February 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals arrested in direct connection to the attack will qualify. Arrests of suspected accomplices who did not directly participate in the planting of these explosives will not count. Actions such as questioning or detention without a formal arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If an arrest is made, this market may remain open beyond the end date in order to confirm whether the arrested individual qualifies according to the rules. The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.