Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, driven primarily by a semiconductor export boom fueled by global AI demand, with March exports surging 48.3% year-over-year to a four-decade high and February industrial production rebounding 5.4% month-on-month. The Bank of Korea's February upgrade of full-year 2026 GDP to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing robust chip sales and private consumption recovery, alongside fiscal support, bolsters this positioning, offsetting construction weakness. Secondary outcomes like 2.0–2.4% (24.5%) reflect OECD's recent 1.7% annual downgrade amid geopolitical risks, with official Statistics Korea Q1 advance estimate due later this month as the key resolution catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2,5 %+ 61%
2,0–2,4 % 31%
<0% 13.5%
1,0–1,4 % 11.0%
NEU
NEU
23. Apr. 2026
<0%
14%
0,0–0,4 %
3%
0,5–0,9 %
10%
1,0–1,4 %
11%
1,5–1,9 %
20%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5 %+
61%
2,5 %+ 61%
2,0–2,4 % 31%
<0% 13.5%
1,0–1,4 % 11.0%
NEU
NEU
23. Apr. 2026
<0%
$747 Vol.
14%
0,0–0,4 %
$473 Vol.
3%
0,5–0,9 %
$264 Vol.
10%
1,0–1,4 %
$453 Vol.
11%
1,5–1,9 %
$342 Vol.
20%
2,0–2,4 %
$243 Vol.
25%
2,5 %+
$6,259 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, driven primarily by a semiconductor export boom fueled by global AI demand, with March exports surging 48.3% year-over-year to a four-decade high and February industrial production rebounding 5.4% month-on-month. The Bank of Korea's February upgrade of full-year 2026 GDP to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing robust chip sales and private consumption recovery, alongside fiscal support, bolsters this positioning, offsetting construction weakness. Secondary outcomes like 2.0–2.4% (24.5%) reflect OECD's recent 1.7% annual downgrade amid geopolitical risks, with official Statistics Korea Q1 advance estimate due later this month as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$8,780Enddatum
23. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, driven primarily by a semiconductor export boom fueled by global AI demand, with March exports surging 48.3% year-over-year to a four-decade high and February industrial production rebounding 5.4% month-on-month. The Bank of Korea's February upgrade of full-year 2026 GDP to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing robust chip sales and private consumption recovery, alongside fiscal support, bolsters this positioning, offsetting construction weakness. Secondary outcomes like 2.0–2.4% (24.5%) reflect OECD's recent 1.7% annual downgrade amid geopolitical risks, with official Statistics Korea Q1 advance estimate due later this month as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$8,780Enddatum
23. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, driven primarily by a semiconductor export boom fueled by global AI demand, with March exports surging 48.3% year-over-year to a four-decade high and February industrial production rebounding 5.4% month-on-month. The Bank of Korea's February upgrade of full-year 2026 GDP to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing robust chip sales and private consumption recovery, alongside fiscal support, bolsters this positioning, offsetting construction weakness. Secondary outcomes like 2.0–2.4% (24.5%) reflect OECD's recent 1.7% annual downgrade amid geopolitical risks, with official Statistics Korea Q1 advance estimate due later this month as the key resolution catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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