Polymarket traders show razor-thin market-implied odds for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 34% on 2.5%+ buoyed by robust semiconductor exports—Samsung and SK Hynix riding global AI demand—contrasting 33.5% for 0.5–0.9% amid political paralysis after President Yoon's December impeachment and Bank of Korea's rate cut to 3% signaling weak domestic consumption and a 20% construction investment plunge. Q3 2024's 2.4% year-over-year expansion provides momentum, but household debt burdens and U.S. tariff risks temper upside, yielding trader consensus around 1–2% quarterly growth. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP flash data and impeachment trial outcomes, with resolution slated for early 2025 ahead of the March 2026 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2,0–2,4 % 31%
1,0–1,4 % 20.8%
0,0–0,4 % 4.7%
<0% 4.3%
<0%
18%
0,0–0,4 %
5%
0,5–0,9 %
30%
1,0–1,4 %
21%
1,5–1,9 %
32%
2,0–2,4 %
18%
2,5 %+
33%
2,0–2,4 % 31%
1,0–1,4 % 20.8%
0,0–0,4 % 4.7%
<0% 4.3%
<0%
18%
0,0–0,4 %
5%
0,5–0,9 %
30%
1,0–1,4 %
21%
1,5–1,9 %
32%
2,0–2,4 %
18%
2,5 %+
33%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show razor-thin market-implied odds for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 34% on 2.5%+ buoyed by robust semiconductor exports—Samsung and SK Hynix riding global AI demand—contrasting 33.5% for 0.5–0.9% amid political paralysis after President Yoon's December impeachment and Bank of Korea's rate cut to 3% signaling weak domestic consumption and a 20% construction investment plunge. Q3 2024's 2.4% year-over-year expansion provides momentum, but household debt burdens and U.S. tariff risks temper upside, yielding trader consensus around 1–2% quarterly growth. Key swing factors include Q4 2024 GDP flash data and impeachment trial outcomes, with resolution slated for early 2025 ahead of the March 2026 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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