Trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election shows JD Vance leading at 20% implied probability, closely trailed by Gavin Newsom at 18.1% and Marco Rubio at 11.8%, reflecting a wide-open post-Trump field with no incumbents eligible due to term limits. The tight dynamics arise from the early timeline—over three years out—fluid party primaries, and competing narratives: Vance's MAGA continuity as vice president, Newsom's progressive governance in California amid Democratic rebuilding, and Rubio's establishment appeal in the Senate. Fragmentation across dozens of names underscores uncertainty. Key separators include 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, economic indicators, early endorsements, and candidate launches, any of which could consolidate trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 12.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$436,947,156 Vol.
$436,947,156 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 12.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$436,947,156 Vol.
$436,947,156 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election shows JD Vance leading at 20% implied probability, closely trailed by Gavin Newsom at 18.1% and Marco Rubio at 11.8%, reflecting a wide-open post-Trump field with no incumbents eligible due to term limits. The tight dynamics arise from the early timeline—over three years out—fluid party primaries, and competing narratives: Vance's MAGA continuity as vice president, Newsom's progressive governance in California amid Democratic rebuilding, and Rubio's establishment appeal in the Senate. Fragmentation across dozens of names underscores uncertainty. Key separators include 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, economic indicators, early endorsements, and candidate launches, any of which could consolidate trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen