Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 1160-1279 total posts for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, reflecting a first-half pace of roughly 40 tweets per day extrapolated across 30 days, with the leading 1240-1279 bin at 15.8% implied probability. Recent developments, including a 43-post daily average from April 7-14 (299 total in that period), have boosted higher bins amid Musk's sustained engagement on Starship static fires, South African racial tensions, and California legislation critiques. Competitive dynamics hinge on second-half variance—potential surges from xAI/Grok benchmarks or SpaceX milestones versus quieter periods from travel—keeping odds fragmented below 16% amid the unpredictability of his real-time cultural commentary bursts. Watch for end-month acceleration as key swing factor.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1240-1279 15.8%
1160-1199 11.8%
1280-1319 11.3%
1200-1239 11.2%
$7,547,077 Vol.
$7,547,077 Vol.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580–599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
6%
1120-1159
10%
1160-1199
12%
1200-1239
11%
1240-1279
16%
1280-1319
11%
1320-1359
5%
1360-1399
4%
1400-1439
3%
1440-1479
3%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
1%
1680–1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
1240-1279 15.8%
1160-1199 11.8%
1280-1319 11.3%
1200-1239 11.2%
$7,547,077 Vol.
$7,547,077 Vol.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580–599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
6%
1120-1159
10%
1160-1199
12%
1200-1239
11%
1240-1279
16%
1280-1319
11%
1320-1359
5%
1360-1399
4%
1400-1439
3%
1440-1479
3%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
1%
1680–1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 1160-1279 total posts for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, reflecting a first-half pace of roughly 40 tweets per day extrapolated across 30 days, with the leading 1240-1279 bin at 15.8% implied probability. Recent developments, including a 43-post daily average from April 7-14 (299 total in that period), have boosted higher bins amid Musk's sustained engagement on Starship static fires, South African racial tensions, and California legislation critiques. Competitive dynamics hinge on second-half variance—potential surges from xAI/Grok benchmarks or SpaceX milestones versus quieter periods from travel—keeping odds fragmented below 16% amid the unpredictability of his real-time cultural commentary bursts. Watch for end-month acceleration as key swing factor.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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