Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen with "Liekinheitin" command trader consensus at 48.1% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026, bolstered by their commanding first semi-final qualification on May 12, standout rehearsals featuring live violin spectacle, and a landslide OGAE fan poll victory over 100 points ahead. Australia's strong second semi-final performance yesterday propelled them to 17.1%, while Greece's Akylas surged to 10.4% on "Ferto"'s jury-friendly staging from semi one. Israel's Noam Bettan holds 6.4% post-qualification amid controversy, with Denmark and Romania rounding out contenders after advancing. With the grand final set for May 16 in Vienna, jury votes and televote splits remain pivotal swing factors in this tight race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEurovision-Gewinner 2026
Eurovision-Gewinner 2026
Finnland 47.6%
Australien 16.9%
Griechenland 10.3%
Israel 6.4%
$164,769,869 Vol.
$164,769,869 Vol.

Finnland
48%

Australien
17%

Griechenland
10%

Israel
6%

Dänemark
5%

Rumänien
4%

Bulgarien
2%

Italien
2%

Frankreich
2%

Malta
1%

Ukraine
1%

Tschechien
1%

Moldawien
1%

Schweden
1%

Kroatien
1%

Serbien
<1%

Albanien
<1%

Zypern
<1%

Norwegen
<1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Belgien
<1%

Deutschland
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Polen
<1%
Finnland 47.6%
Australien 16.9%
Griechenland 10.3%
Israel 6.4%
$164,769,869 Vol.
$164,769,869 Vol.

Finnland
48%

Australien
17%

Griechenland
10%

Israel
6%

Dänemark
5%

Rumänien
4%

Bulgarien
2%

Italien
2%

Frankreich
2%

Malta
1%

Ukraine
1%

Tschechien
1%

Moldawien
1%

Schweden
1%

Kroatien
1%

Serbien
<1%

Albanien
<1%

Zypern
<1%

Norwegen
<1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Belgien
<1%

Deutschland
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Polen
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen with "Liekinheitin" command trader consensus at 48.1% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026, bolstered by their commanding first semi-final qualification on May 12, standout rehearsals featuring live violin spectacle, and a landslide OGAE fan poll victory over 100 points ahead. Australia's strong second semi-final performance yesterday propelled them to 17.1%, while Greece's Akylas surged to 10.4% on "Ferto"'s jury-friendly staging from semi one. Israel's Noam Bettan holds 6.4% post-qualification amid controversy, with Denmark and Romania rounding out contenders after advancing. With the grand final set for May 16 in Vienna, jury votes and televote splits remain pivotal swing factors in this tight race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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