The near-certainty of "No" at 98% stems from the extremely tight window through the end of 2026, with no verified theological signals, official church statements, or global events aligning with traditional Second Coming narratives in that timeframe. Traders view the absence of precursor developments—such as widespread religious consensus or cultural momentum around end-times prophecies—as decisive, echoing historical patterns where specific short-term predictions have consistently failed to materialize. The market reflects aggregated real-money sentiment prioritizing observable reality over speculation. While an unforeseen worldwide crisis or sudden religious revelation could theoretically shift dynamics, such scenarios face steep historical and institutional barriers that keep the current consensus firmly in place.