Trader consensus on Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner market tilts narrowly toward JD Vance at 20.1% implied probability, edging Gavin Newsom's 18.1%, with Marco Rubio at 11.9% as traders weigh early positioning after the 2024 results. The race stays tight due to the distant timeline—over three years out—leaving ample room for shifts from 2026 midterms, economic trends, and scandals, while Donald Trump's endorsement power bolsters GOP contenders like Vance and Rubio, and Democrats test Newsom's national appeal amid a fragmented field. Separation could emerge from Vance's vice presidential performance, Newsom's California governance record, or pivotal congressional outcomes reshaping party control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
JD Vance 20.1%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,798,931 Vol.
$435,798,931 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 20.1%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,798,931 Vol.
$435,798,931 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner market tilts narrowly toward JD Vance at 20.1% implied probability, edging Gavin Newsom's 18.1%, with Marco Rubio at 11.9% as traders weigh early positioning after the 2024 results. The race stays tight due to the distant timeline—over three years out—leaving ample room for shifts from 2026 midterms, economic trends, and scandals, while Donald Trump's endorsement power bolsters GOP contenders like Vance and Rubio, and Democrats test Newsom's national appeal amid a fragmented field. Separation could emerge from Vance's vice presidential performance, Newsom's California governance record, or pivotal congressional outcomes reshaping party control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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