Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to a March unemployment rate of 4.4%, steady from February's unexpected rise amid a 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline that signaled labor market softening. Recent pre-release indicators present a mixed picture: ADP reported 62,000 private sector hires, exceeding forecasts, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 9,000 to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, suggesting stable layoffs. Consensus previews anticipate modest payroll gains of 50,000–65,000, with the rate hovering between 4.3%–4.5% amid FOMC projections near 4.4% for year-end. Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release at 8:30 a.m. ET will resolve the closely contested odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,4 % 42%
4,5 % 23%
4,3 % 22%
4,6 % 7.3%
$172,100 Vol.
$172,100 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
≤3,9 %
<1%
4,0 %
<1%
4,1 %
1%
4,2 %
3%
4,3 %
22%
4,4 %
42%
4,5 %
28%
4,6 %
7%
≥4,7%
1%
4,4 % 42%
4,5 % 23%
4,3 % 22%
4,6 % 7.3%
$172,100 Vol.
$172,100 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
≤3,9 %
$6,649 Vol.
<1%
4,0 %
$108,416 Vol.
<1%
4,1 %
$5,160 Vol.
1%
4,2 %
$11,228 Vol.
3%
4,3 %
$5,114 Vol.
22%
4,4 %
$5,925 Vol.
42%
4,5 %
$6,197 Vol.
28%
4,6 %
$9,431 Vol.
7%
≥4,7%
$14,080 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to a March unemployment rate of 4.4%, steady from February's unexpected rise amid a 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline that signaled labor market softening. Recent pre-release indicators present a mixed picture: ADP reported 62,000 private sector hires, exceeding forecasts, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 9,000 to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, suggesting stable layoffs. Consensus previews anticipate modest payroll gains of 50,000–65,000, with the rate hovering between 4.3%–4.5% amid FOMC projections near 4.4% for year-end. Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release at 8:30 a.m. ET will resolve the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$172,100Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to a March unemployment rate of 4.4%, steady from February's unexpected rise amid a 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline that signaled labor market softening. Recent pre-release indicators present a mixed picture: ADP reported 62,000 private sector hires, exceeding forecasts, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 9,000 to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, suggesting stable layoffs. Consensus previews anticipate modest payroll gains of 50,000–65,000, with the rate hovering between 4.3%–4.5% amid FOMC projections near 4.4% for year-end. Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release at 8:30 a.m. ET will resolve the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$172,100Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to a March unemployment rate of 4.4%, steady from February's unexpected rise amid a 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline that signaled labor market softening. Recent pre-release indicators present a mixed picture: ADP reported 62,000 private sector hires, exceeding forecasts, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 9,000 to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, suggesting stable layoffs. Consensus previews anticipate modest payroll gains of 50,000–65,000, with the rate hovering between 4.3%–4.5% amid FOMC projections near 4.4% for year-end. Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release at 8:30 a.m. ET will resolve the closely contested odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen