Name: Kash Patel out by August 31?
Start: 2025-07-21T14:52:55.44573Z
End: 2025-08-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between July 21 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Kash Patel raus

Kash Patel out by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between July 11 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Kash Patel out by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tulsi Gabbard bis zum 31. März ausgeschieden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pam Bondi bis spätestens 31. Januar nicht mehr Generalstaatsanwältin?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Trump bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 zurücktreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 ein Mitglied von Trumps Kabinett nicht mehr im Amt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth bis zum 31. März nicht mehr Verteidigungsminister?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem bis zum 31. März raus?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between December 16, 2025, and the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Susie Wiles bis zum 31. März nicht mehr Stabschefin des Weißen Hauses?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ICE-Schütze bis zum 31. März entlassen/zurückgetreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikita Bier ceases to be Head of Product of X for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Nikita Bier's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from X and/or Nikita Bier, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nikita Bier bis spätestens 31. März nicht mehr Head of Product bei X?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fetterman vor 2027 raus?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Wird Trump versuchen, Powell bis zum 31. Januar zu entlassen?

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump stellt die Untersuchung gegen Powell bis zum 28. Februar ein?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

US-Kongressmitglied bis zum 30. April wegen Epstein-Akten zurückgetreten?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Pam Bondi die erste sein, die das Trump-Kabinett vor 2027 verlässt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Wird Donald Trump bis zum 30. Juni 2026 einen neuen Kandidaten für den Vorsitz der Federal Reserve nominieren?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell bis zum 30. Juni bundesweit angeklagt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Masoud Pezeshkian will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as President, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Masoud Pezeshkian bis zum 31. Dezember raus?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook nicht mehr Apple-CEO vor 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify.

Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Lisa Cook bis zum 28. Februar nicht mehr Fed-Gouverneurin?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook bis zum 31. März nicht mehr Apple-CEO?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jerome Powell bis zum 31. Dezember aus dem Fed-Vorstand ausgeschieden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel bis zum 30. Juni nicht mehr Präsident von Kuba?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Claudia Sheinbaum bis zum 30. Juni nicht mehr Präsidentin von Mexiko?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Ist Mike Johnson bis zum 31. Dezember nicht mehr Speaker?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Wird Jerome Powell bis zum 14. Mai 2026 als Fed-Vorsitzender abgelöst?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jessica Tisch ceases to be the New York City Police Commissioner for any period of time between December 2, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Tisch's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. An announcement from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani that he will remove Tisch from her post will qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York City local government or Police Department; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Entlässt Mamdani Jessica Tisch bis zum 31. März als Polizeikommissarin von NYC?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wird Trump bis Ende 2026 seines Amtes enthoben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Trump Powell bis zum 31. März verklagen?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Kash Patel out by August 31?

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Kash Patel out by August 31?

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Kash Patel out by August 31?

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