Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X posts market for April 3-10 closely clusters implied probabilities around the 240-299 range (topping at 12.5% each for 240-259 and 260-279), reflecting his steady recent cadence as X owner and cultural lightning rod—averaging roughly 35 posts daily in late March, including a 168-post spike over four days (March 20-24) fueled by TSA salary offers and trillion-watt chip reveals. This competitive field underscores high uncertainty from volatile news cycles, like potential Tesla updates or political salvos, which could push toward 300+ via viral engagement or dip below 240 during quieter stretches. Key swing factors include mid-week Starship tests or xAI announcements, with no confirmed catalysts yet altering the balanced trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert240-259 13%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
$330,944 Vol.
$330,944 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180–199
3%
200-219
8%
220-239
12%
240-259
13%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
12%
320-339
8%
340–359
7%
360-379
6%
380-399
4%
400-419
3%
420–439
2%
440-459
1%
460–479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 13%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
$330,944 Vol.
$330,944 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180–199
3%
200-219
8%
220-239
12%
240-259
13%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
12%
320-339
8%
340–359
7%
360-379
6%
380-399
4%
400-419
3%
420–439
2%
440-459
1%
460–479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X posts market for April 3-10 closely clusters implied probabilities around the 240-299 range (topping at 12.5% each for 240-259 and 260-279), reflecting his steady recent cadence as X owner and cultural lightning rod—averaging roughly 35 posts daily in late March, including a 168-post spike over four days (March 20-24) fueled by TSA salary offers and trillion-watt chip reveals. This competitive field underscores high uncertainty from volatile news cycles, like potential Tesla updates or political salvos, which could push toward 300+ via viral engagement or dip below 240 during quieter stretches. Key swing factors include mid-week Starship tests or xAI announcements, with no confirmed catalysts yet altering the balanced trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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