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Politik·Raubüberfall

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

Market icon
Politik·Raubüberfall

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

14% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
14% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" recovery of any stolen paintings from Italy's Magnani-Rocca Foundation by April 15 at 84%, driven by the absence of breakthroughs in the Carabinieri's investigation since the March 22 heist. Four hooded thieves executed a swift three-minute break-in at the Parma-area villa, targeting Renoir's "Les Poissons," Cézanne's "Still Life with Cherries," and Matisse's "Odalisque on the Terrace"—works valued at around $10-15 million. No leads, arrests, or recovery tips have emerged publicly in the nine days since, underscoring the challenges of tracing professional art thefts amid a tight two-week resolution window, with odds reflecting historical low recovery rates for such brazen museum raids.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$34
Enddatum
15. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" recovery of any stolen paintings from Italy's Magnani-Rocca Foundation by April 15 at 84%, driven by the absence of breakthroughs in the Carabinieri's investigation since the March 22 heist. Four hooded thieves executed a swift three-minute break-in at the Parma-area villa, targeting Renoir's "Les Poissons," Cézanne's "Still Life with Cherries," and Matisse's "Odalisque on the Terrace"—works valued at around $10-15 million. No leads, arrests, or recovery tips have emerged publicly in the nine days since, underscoring the challenges of tracing professional art thefts amid a tight two-week resolution window, with odds reflecting historical low recovery rates for such brazen museum raids.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$34
Enddatum
15. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 14% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 14¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 14%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Mar 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" liegt bei 14% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 14% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.