Recent U.S. intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains about one year despite extensive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Bushehr and Isfahan since February, anchoring trader consensus at 91.8% for "No" before 2027. IAEA reports from late February and April highlight Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but no evidence of active weaponization, testing, or diversion, with Tehran restricting access post-strikes and denying restart of bomb-grade enrichment. Ongoing sanctions, diplomatic stalemates on JCPOA revival, and Supreme Leader oversight reinforce low breakout risk by year-end, though policy reversals or covert advances could shift probabilities.