Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and key personnel, significantly extending the estimated timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate that, if Tehran decided to pursue one, it would require roughly nine to twelve months from current stockpiles and infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks have focused on pausing enrichment and addressing highly enriched uranium stocks without firm commitments from Iran, while IAEA reporting highlights restricted inspector access. These military and verification setbacks underpin trader consensus that acquisition before 2027 remains improbable absent a rapid, undetected acceleration.