Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 60-63°F for Chicago's high temperature at O'Hare on March 29, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a peak near 62°F under partly sunny skies and light southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph. This marks a sharp warmup from recent cooler readings—March 28 markets favored 48-49°F—owing to an upper-level ridge ushering mild air advection into the Midwest amid a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern suppressing extremes. The neck-and-neck odds for 60-61°F (25%) versus 62-63°F (25.5%) reflect subtle model spreads between GFS and ECMWF ensembles on afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could limit or enhance peak heating by 1-2°F above the 51°F climatological normal. Today's 12Z guidance updates may tip the balance before official observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 29?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 29?
60-61°F 26%
62-63°F 26%
64-65°F 17%
58-59°F 13%
$18,484 Vol.
$18,484 Vol.
53°F oder darunter
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72°F or higher
1%
60-61°F 26%
62-63°F 26%
64-65°F 17%
58-59°F 13%
$18,484 Vol.
$18,484 Vol.
53°F oder darunter
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 60-63°F for Chicago's high temperature at O'Hare on March 29, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a peak near 62°F under partly sunny skies and light southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph. This marks a sharp warmup from recent cooler readings—March 28 markets favored 48-49°F—owing to an upper-level ridge ushering mild air advection into the Midwest amid a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern suppressing extremes. The neck-and-neck odds for 60-61°F (25%) versus 62-63°F (25.5%) reflect subtle model spreads between GFS and ECMWF ensembles on afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could limit or enhance peak heating by 1-2°F above the 51°F climatological normal. Today's 12Z guidance updates may tip the balance before official observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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