Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 52-53°F in Chicago on March 19 at 28% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting mild conditions from a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest, with southerly flow boosting temperatures into the low-to-mid 50s. Historical March 19 highs average 45°F at O'Hare, but recent model runs show above-normal warmth amid low-confidence spread, reflecting uncertainties like potential cold frontal passages, cloud cover variability, and jet stream waviness. Key thresholds hinge on 00Z model updates tonight; sub-50°F odds rise if northern stream energy dives south, while 56°F+ requires persistent clear skies and downslope effects.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 19. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 19. März?
52-53°F 28%
54-55°F 17%
56°F oder höher 16.8%
50-51°F 13%
$69,458 Vol.
$69,458 Vol.
37°F oder darunter
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
4%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
13%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
17%
56°F oder höher
17%
52-53°F 28%
54-55°F 17%
56°F oder höher 16.8%
50-51°F 13%
$69,458 Vol.
$69,458 Vol.
37°F oder darunter
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
4%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
13%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
17%
56°F oder höher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 52-53°F in Chicago on March 19 at 28% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting mild conditions from a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest, with southerly flow boosting temperatures into the low-to-mid 50s. Historical March 19 highs average 45°F at O'Hare, but recent model runs show above-normal warmth amid low-confidence spread, reflecting uncertainties like potential cold frontal passages, cloud cover variability, and jet stream waviness. Key thresholds hinge on 00Z model updates tonight; sub-50°F odds rise if northern stream energy dives south, while 56°F+ requires persistent clear skies and downslope effects.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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