Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a 10°C high in Ankara on March 19, with implied odds tightly clustered at 39% for 10°C, 30% for 9°C, and 22% for 11°C, reflecting a model spread of about 2°C amid uncertainty in northerly flow and cloud cover. Recent developments, including Turkish MGM updates showing a cooling trend from a weak low-pressure system over the Black Sea, differentiate these outcomes—favoring 10°C as the ensemble mean while lower probabilities for 9°C stem from drier, clearer scenarios in some GFS members. Historical March maxima average 12°C, but persistent stratiform clouds suppress daytime heating, tilting sentiment against warmer deviations. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 19?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 19?
10°C 39%
9°C 30%
11°C 23%
12°C or higher 4.3%
$41,508 Vol.
$41,508 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
30%
10°C
39%
11°C
23%
12°C or higher
4%
10°C 39%
9°C 30%
11°C 23%
12°C or higher 4.3%
$41,508 Vol.
$41,508 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
30%
10°C
39%
11°C
23%
12°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 15, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a 10°C high in Ankara on March 19, with implied odds tightly clustered at 39% for 10°C, 30% for 9°C, and 22% for 11°C, reflecting a model spread of about 2°C amid uncertainty in northerly flow and cloud cover. Recent developments, including Turkish MGM updates showing a cooling trend from a weak low-pressure system over the Black Sea, differentiate these outcomes—favoring 10°C as the ensemble mean while lower probabilities for 9°C stem from drier, clearer scenarios in some GFS members. Historical March maxima average 12°C, but persistent stratiform clouds suppress daytime heating, tilting sentiment against warmer deviations. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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