Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 X posts in March 2026 at 67% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pace amid recent political and business engagements. Monthly totals have consistently topped 1400 in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by daily averages of 40-50 posts during his leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Trump administration policy commentary, and SpaceX/Tesla updates. Lower ranges like 1360-1399 (15%) account for potential moderation if posting habits shift due to executive demands or platform changes, while tail risks below 1200 imply unlikely scenarios of reduced activity. Upcoming DOGE milestones and 2026 election cycle could further elevate output, sustaining elevated odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1400+ 65.8%
1360-1399 14.9%
1320-1359 9.0%
1280-1319 5.1%
$3,133,231 Vol.
$3,133,231 Vol.
1000–1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
1%
1240-1279
3%
1280-1319
5%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
15%
1400+
66%
1400+ 65.8%
1360-1399 14.9%
1320-1359 9.0%
1280-1319 5.1%
$3,133,231 Vol.
$3,133,231 Vol.
1000–1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
1%
1240-1279
3%
1280-1319
5%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
15%
1400+
66%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 X posts in March 2026 at 67% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pace amid recent political and business engagements. Monthly totals have consistently topped 1400 in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by daily averages of 40-50 posts during his leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Trump administration policy commentary, and SpaceX/Tesla updates. Lower ranges like 1360-1399 (15%) account for potential moderation if posting habits shift due to executive demands or platform changes, while tail risks below 1200 imply unlikely scenarios of reduced activity. Upcoming DOGE milestones and 2026 election cycle could further elevate output, sustaining elevated odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen