Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1400+ times on X in March 2026 (46.3% implied probability), closely followed by 1360-1399 (18.9%), reflecting his sustained high-volume pattern of roughly 40-50 posts daily based on 2024 data—such as over 1,500 in November amid election activity and 1,300+ in December. These leading outcomes position above 1,200 posts as baseline expectations, informed by historical averages without recent declines. Key drivers include Musk's co-leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency, likely amplifying X use for announcements, alongside Tesla and SpaceX updates; lower bins below 1,200 (<10% each) hedge busier schedules, though no volume drop has materialized post-2024 election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1400+ 46.3%
1360-1399 18.9%
1320-1359 12.0%
1280-1319 9.8%
$3,028,256 Vol.
$3,028,256 Vol.
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000–1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
12%
1360-1399
19%
1400+
46%
1400+ 46.3%
1360-1399 18.9%
1320-1359 12.0%
1280-1319 9.8%
$3,028,256 Vol.
$3,028,256 Vol.
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000–1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
12%
1360-1399
19%
1400+
46%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1400+ times on X in March 2026 (46.3% implied probability), closely followed by 1360-1399 (18.9%), reflecting his sustained high-volume pattern of roughly 40-50 posts daily based on 2024 data—such as over 1,500 in November amid election activity and 1,300+ in December. These leading outcomes position above 1,200 posts as baseline expectations, informed by historical averages without recent declines. Key drivers include Musk's co-leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency, likely amplifying X use for announcements, alongside Tesla and SpaceX updates; lower bins below 1,200 (<10% each) hedge busier schedules, though no volume drop has materialized post-2024 election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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