Market icon

Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?

Market icon

Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?

Ended: Jan 1

Ended: Jan 1

<1% chance
Polymarket

$54,734 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$54,734 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor.

General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$54,734
Enddatum
Jan 1, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 23, 2025, 1:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor.

General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$54,734
Enddatum
Jan 1, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 23, 2025, 1:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 0% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 0¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 0%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $54.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 23, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?" liegt bei 0% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 0% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.