Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99% implied probability to "No" for crude oil reaching its all-time high by March 31, reflecting WTI front-month futures trading around $101 per barrel—well below the $147 peak from July 2008—with mere hours until resolution based on CME Group settlement data. This near-unanimous positioning stems from a 40%+ monthly surge driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions amid escalating Iran tensions, collapsing tanker traffic to 5% of normal and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium, yet insufficient momentum for a near-doubling in the final session. Tail risks include abrupt military escalation or fresh supply shocks before close, though traders price these as remote given Trump's April 6 deadline extension.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$748,662 Vol.
$748,662 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$748,662 Vol.
$748,662 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99% implied probability to "No" for crude oil reaching its all-time high by March 31, reflecting WTI front-month futures trading around $101 per barrel—well below the $147 peak from July 2008—with mere hours until resolution based on CME Group settlement data. This near-unanimous positioning stems from a 40%+ monthly surge driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions amid escalating Iran tensions, collapsing tanker traffic to 5% of normal and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium, yet insufficient momentum for a near-doubling in the final session. Tail risks include abrupt military escalation or fresh supply shocks before close, though traders price these as remote given Trump's April 6 deadline extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Volumen
$748,662Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99% implied probability to "No" for crude oil reaching its all-time high by March 31, reflecting WTI front-month futures trading around $101 per barrel—well below the $147 peak from July 2008—with mere hours until resolution based on CME Group settlement data. This near-unanimous positioning stems from a 40%+ monthly surge driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions amid escalating Iran tensions, collapsing tanker traffic to 5% of normal and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium, yet insufficient momentum for a near-doubling in the final session. Tail risks include abrupt military escalation or fresh supply shocks before close, though traders price these as remote given Trump's April 6 deadline extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volumen
$748,662Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99% implied probability to "No" for crude oil reaching its all-time high by March 31, reflecting WTI front-month futures trading around $101 per barrel—well below the $147 peak from July 2008—with mere hours until resolution based on CME Group settlement data. This near-unanimous positioning stems from a 40%+ monthly surge driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions amid escalating Iran tensions, collapsing tanker traffic to 5% of normal and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium, yet insufficient momentum for a near-doubling in the final session. Tail risks include abrupt military escalation or fresh supply shocks before close, though traders price these as remote given Trump's April 6 deadline extension.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen