Recent inflation data, including May CPI at 4.2% amid elevated energy prices, and stronger labor market readings have shifted market-implied odds toward a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting now in focus. This has weighed on gold prices, which have corrected sharply from January highs and currently trade near $4,300–$4,500, aligning with the 63.5% probability assigned to a $4,200–$4,600 June settlement range. Persistent central bank purchases and geopolitical risks continue to provide structural support, while higher real yields and reduced near-term rate-cut expectations limit upside. Trader consensus reflects these crosscurrents, pricing modest consolidation rather than a decisive breakout.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorum geht es bei Gold (GC) im Juni?
$4.200-$4.600 63.5%
$3.800-$4.200 27.0%
4.600–5.000 $ 10.8%
<$3.800 1.1%
$1,067,435 Vol.
$1,067,435 Vol.
<$3.800
1%
$3.800-$4.200
27%
$4.200-$4.600
64%
4.600–5.000 $
11%
$5.000-$5.400
1%
$5.400-$5.800
1%
$5.800–$6.200
<1%
>6.200 $
<1%
$4.200-$4.600 63.5%
$3.800-$4.200 27.0%
4.600–5.000 $ 10.8%
<$3.800 1.1%
$1,067,435 Vol.
$1,067,435 Vol.
<$3.800
1%
$3.800-$4.200
27%
$4.200-$4.600
64%
4.600–5.000 $
11%
$5.000-$5.400
1%
$5.400-$5.800
1%
$5.800–$6.200
<1%
>6.200 $
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation data, including May CPI at 4.2% amid elevated energy prices, and stronger labor market readings have shifted market-implied odds toward a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting now in focus. This has weighed on gold prices, which have corrected sharply from January highs and currently trade near $4,300–$4,500, aligning with the 63.5% probability assigned to a $4,200–$4,600 June settlement range. Persistent central bank purchases and geopolitical risks continue to provide structural support, while higher real yields and reduced near-term rate-cut expectations limit upside. Trader consensus reflects these crosscurrents, pricing modest consolidation rather than a decisive breakout.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen