Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability for silver (SI) March futures settling below $75 per ounce, driven by post-U.S. election USD strength that has pressured precious metals amid rising Treasury yields to 4.45% on the 10-year note. Spot silver hovers near $31 amid a 3% weekly decline, with the March contract trading around $32, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data—including October's 12.6 million nonfarm payrolls beat—and tempered Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations ahead of the December 18 FOMC meeting. The 32.6% odds on $75-$80 capture positioning for potential rebounds from industrial demand in solar and electronics, alongside China stimulus signals, though macro headwinds dominate near-term sentiment. Key catalysts include tomorrow's October CPI release and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUnter 75 $ 57%
$75-$80 32.6%
$80-$85 4.8%
85–90 $ 2.8%
$194,267 Vol.
$194,267 Vol.
Unter 75 $
57%
$75-$80
33%
$80-$85
5%
85–90 $
3%
$90-$95
2%
$95-$100
1%
$100-$105
<1%
105$-110$
1%
110–115 $
1%
>115 $
1%
Unter 75 $ 57%
$75-$80 32.6%
$80-$85 4.8%
85–90 $ 2.8%
$194,267 Vol.
$194,267 Vol.
Unter 75 $
57%
$75-$80
33%
$80-$85
5%
85–90 $
3%
$90-$95
2%
$95-$100
1%
$100-$105
<1%
105$-110$
1%
110–115 $
1%
>115 $
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability for silver (SI) March futures settling below $75 per ounce, driven by post-U.S. election USD strength that has pressured precious metals amid rising Treasury yields to 4.45% on the 10-year note. Spot silver hovers near $31 amid a 3% weekly decline, with the March contract trading around $32, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data—including October's 12.6 million nonfarm payrolls beat—and tempered Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations ahead of the December 18 FOMC meeting. The 32.6% odds on $75-$80 capture positioning for potential rebounds from industrial demand in solar and electronics, alongside China stimulus signals, though macro headwinds dominate near-term sentiment. Key catalysts include tomorrow's October CPI release and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen