Elevated trader consensus for a June WTI crude settlement above $84 reflects persistent supply constraints from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Recent diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, including ceasefire extensions and reopening talks, has introduced downside risk, pressuring near-term futures while global inventories draw sharply lower at an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing uncertainty over the pace of supply restoration, with forward curves showing steep backwardation as traders weigh potential resolution against sustained disruptions. Key near-term catalysts include further negotiation updates and weekly inventory data that could shift pricing toward the $77–$84 range or higher if tensions persist.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
Worauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 63%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 11.8%
$63-$70 3.0%
$203,017 Vol.
$203,017 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
70–77 $
12%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
63%
>$84 63%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 11.8%
$63-$70 3.0%
$203,017 Vol.
$203,017 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
$20,391 Vol.
<1%
$42-$49
$10,181 Vol.
1%
$49-$56
$12,148 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$13,438 Vol.
1%
$63-$70
$27,004 Vol.
3%
70–77 $
$16,834 Vol.
12%
$77-$84
$16,887 Vol.
18%
>$84
$86,135 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Elevated trader consensus for a June WTI crude settlement above $84 reflects persistent supply constraints from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Recent diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, including ceasefire extensions and reopening talks, has introduced downside risk, pressuring near-term futures while global inventories draw sharply lower at an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing uncertainty over the pace of supply restoration, with forward curves showing steep backwardation as traders weigh potential resolution against sustained disruptions. Key near-term catalysts include further negotiation updates and weekly inventory data that could shift pricing toward the $77–$84 range or higher if tensions persist.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volumen
$203,017Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Elevated trader consensus for a June WTI crude settlement above $84 reflects persistent supply constraints from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Recent diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, including ceasefire extensions and reopening talks, has introduced downside risk, pressuring near-term futures while global inventories draw sharply lower at an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing uncertainty over the pace of supply restoration, with forward curves showing steep backwardation as traders weigh potential resolution against sustained disruptions. Key near-term catalysts include further negotiation updates and weekly inventory data that could shift pricing toward the $77–$84 range or higher if tensions persist.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volumen
$203,017Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated trader consensus for a June WTI crude settlement above $84 reflects persistent supply constraints from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Recent diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, including ceasefire extensions and reopening talks, has introduced downside risk, pressuring near-term futures while global inventories draw sharply lower at an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing uncertainty over the pace of supply restoration, with forward curves showing steep backwardation as traders weigh potential resolution against sustained disruptions. Key near-term catalysts include further negotiation updates and weekly inventory data that could shift pricing toward the $77–$84 range or higher if tensions persist.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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