Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) June 2026 futures settling above $84, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including recent U.S.-Iran exchanges that have propelled spot prices near $96 per barrel and fueled supply disruption fears. June CLM26 futures trade around $95.75, up 0.7% recently, reflecting persistent Middle East risks outweighing bearish factors like the UAE's OPEC exit on May 1—removing 3.4 million barrels per day from cartel quotas—and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May. The latest EIA report showed a 6.2 million barrel commercial crude inventory draw, tightening near-term balances. Watch upcoming weekly EIA data and OPEC+ signals for potential volatility ahead of June settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
Worauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 57%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 5.2%
$63-$70 4.8%
$155,868 Vol.
$155,868 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
70–77 $
5%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
57%
>$84 57%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 5.2%
$63-$70 4.8%
$155,868 Vol.
$155,868 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
70–77 $
5%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
57%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) June 2026 futures settling above $84, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including recent U.S.-Iran exchanges that have propelled spot prices near $96 per barrel and fueled supply disruption fears. June CLM26 futures trade around $95.75, up 0.7% recently, reflecting persistent Middle East risks outweighing bearish factors like the UAE's OPEC exit on May 1—removing 3.4 million barrels per day from cartel quotas—and OPEC+'s modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May. The latest EIA report showed a 6.2 million barrel commercial crude inventory draw, tightening near-term balances. Watch upcoming weekly EIA data and OPEC+ signals for potential volatility ahead of June settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen