Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled momentum on President Trump's early-year push for Greenland amid fierce international and domestic opposition. In January, White House statements considered military options for national security reasons, while Rep. Randy Fine introduced the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but Denmark, the EU, UK, and even Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski voiced strong resistance, with Greenland reiterating independence goals. No legislative advancement, diplomatic concessions, or executive actions have materialized in the past two months, underscoring legal, constitutional, and geopolitical barriers to formal annexation before year-end resolution. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or congressional votes could alter odds, though historical precedents favor inaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$18,979 交易量
$18,979 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$18,979 交易量
$18,979 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled momentum on President Trump's early-year push for Greenland amid fierce international and domestic opposition. In January, White House statements considered military options for national security reasons, while Rep. Randy Fine introduced the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but Denmark, the EU, UK, and even Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski voiced strong resistance, with Greenland reiterating independence goals. No legislative advancement, diplomatic concessions, or executive actions have materialized in the past two months, underscoring legal, constitutional, and geopolitical barriers to formal annexation before year-end resolution. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or congressional votes could alter odds, though historical precedents favor inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
交易量
$18,979结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled momentum on President Trump's early-year push for Greenland amid fierce international and domestic opposition. In January, White House statements considered military options for national security reasons, while Rep. Randy Fine introduced the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but Denmark, the EU, UK, and even Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski voiced strong resistance, with Greenland reiterating independence goals. No legislative advancement, diplomatic concessions, or executive actions have materialized in the past two months, underscoring legal, constitutional, and geopolitical barriers to formal annexation before year-end resolution. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or congressional votes could alter odds, though historical precedents favor inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,979结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled momentum on President Trump's early-year push for Greenland amid fierce international and domestic opposition. In January, White House statements considered military options for national security reasons, while Rep. Randy Fine introduced the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but Denmark, the EU, UK, and even Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski voiced strong resistance, with Greenland reiterating independence goals. No legislative advancement, diplomatic concessions, or executive actions have materialized in the past two months, underscoring legal, constitutional, and geopolitical barriers to formal annexation before year-end resolution. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or congressional votes could alter odds, though historical precedents favor inaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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